News

World indices overview: news from US 30, US 500, US Tech, JP 225, and DE 40 for 29 May 2025

30 May 2025

The court ruling that repealed tariffs imposed by the current US administration boosted investor optimism and global stock indices. Find out more in our analysis and forecast for global indices for 29 May 2025.

US indices forecast: US 30, US 500, US Tech

  • Recent data: a federal trade court blocks Trump’s global reciprocal tariffs and orders the administration to rescind them
  • Market impact: global indices resume growth as demand for stocks from investors increases

Fundamental analysis

The court ruling permanently blocks the tariffs unless an appellate court allows President Donald Trump to reinstate them during further legal proceedings. The Department of Justice has already filed a notice of appeal. This decision significantly undermines his economic agenda, and global markets responded positively.

In its ruling, the three-judge panel of the US Court of International Trade stated that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which Trump used to justify the tariffs, does not grant the president authority to impose universal import duties. The US administration has filed an appeal.

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index broke above the recently formed resistance level at 42,430.0, with the support level shifting to 42,030.0. A new level has yet to form. The situation in the US 30 continues to change – this marks the third trend reversal. Technically, the conditions for an uptrend have emerged, but the formation of a sideways channel is also possible. The boundaries of this range may be breached, but without a trend continuation.

The following scenarios are considered for the US 30 price forecast:

  • Pessimistic US 30 forecast: a breakout below the 42,030.0 support level could push the index to 40,215.0
  • Optimistic US 30 forecast: a breakout above the 42,430.0 resistance level could drive the index to 43,890.0
US 30 technical analysis

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 index has entered a corrective phase, with the support area shifting down to 5,640.0 and new resistance forming at 5,960.0. There is a growth impulse, which may lead to a breakout above the current resistance level. The index maintains its upward trajectory, with the potential to evolve into a stable medium-term uptrend.

The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:

  • Pessimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout below the 5,640.0 support level could send the index down to 5,355.0
  • Optimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout above the 5,960.0 resistance level could propel the index to 6,085.0
US 500 technical analysis

US Tech technical analysis

The US Tech index has consolidated above the 200-day Moving Average, indicating persistent upward momentum. The support line has shifted to 19,980.0, and the resistance level is marked at 21,435.0. Given the current dynamics, the likelihood of a medium-term uptrend remains high if the price consolidates above the 21,435.0 level after breaking above it.

The following scenarios are considered for the US Tech price forecast:

  • Pessimistic US Tech forecast: a breakout below the 19,980.0 support level could push the index down to 19,150.0
  • Optimistic US Tech forecast: if the price consolidates above the previously breached resistance level at 21,435.0, the index could climb to 22,230.0
US Tech technical analysis

Asian index forecast: JP 225

  • Recent data: Bank of Japan’s core CPI for May (preliminary) came in at 2.4%
  • Market impact: if inflation continues to rise, the Bank of Japan may adopt tighter measures – traditionally perceived as a bearish signal for the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The Bank of Japan’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the year-over-year price change for goods and services, excluding fresh food. In May 2025, the figure stood at 2.4%, higher than the forecast of 2.3% and the previous reading of 2.2%, indicating that inflation in Japan remains persistent and may be intensifying.

Higher-than-expected inflation increases pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy (e.g., raising interest rates). This could boost bond yields and make equities less attractive. Traders and analysts will now closely monitor BoJ statements and further macroeconomic data to assess the likelihood of a policy shift.

JP 225 technical analysis

The JP 225 index rebounded from the 36,590.0 support level and headed towards resistance at 38,765.0. If this level is breached, the previously formed medium-term uptrend will continue. At the moment, there are no signs of a trend reversal.

The following scenarios are considered for the JP 225 price forecast:

  • Pessimistic JP 225 forecast: a breakout below the 36,590.0 support level could push the index down to 33,820.0
  • Optimistic JP 225 forecast: a breakout above the 38,765.0 resistance level could drive the index to 39,625.0
JP 225 technical analysis

European index forecast: DE 40

  • Recent data: Germany’s unemployment rate for May (preliminary) was 6.3%
  • Market impact: since the actual figure matched the forecast and remained unchanged from the previous period, investors are unlikely to revise their strategies significantly

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s unemployment rate (6.3% for May 2025) reflects the proportion of the working-age population actively seeking employment. This figure matched both the forecast and the previous month, indicating stability in the labour market. It shows neither improvement nor deterioration.

The absence of negative surprises may help maintain the current market sentiment. Given the stagnant labour market, investors may shift focus to upcoming data on wage growth, inflation, and PMI to gain a clearer picture of economic conditions. This report has a moderate impact on the German stock market and is interpreted as a neutral signal.

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index has established key levels: resistance at 24,305.0 and support at 23,270.0. The current trend shows strengthening upward momentum. The index retains the potential to reach a new all-time high.

The following scenarios are considered for the DE 40 price forecast:

  • Pessimistic DE 40 forecast: a breakout below the 23,270.0 support level could send the index down to 22,245.0
  • Optimistic DE 40 forecast: a breakout above the 24,305.0 resistance level could propel the index to 24,855.0
DE 40 technical analysis

Summary

The US court decision to repeal imposed tariffs generated positive sentiment among investors. Several existing tariffs on specific goods, such as aluminium and steel, remain unaffected by Wednesday’s ruling as the president did not invoke IEEPA to justify them. The US 30 index once again broke above the resistance level, reversing the early signs of a downtrend. Japan’s JP 225 is advancing towards its current resistance level. The US 500 and US Tech indices continue to trade in an uptrend, with Germany’s DE 40 aiming for another all-time high.

Can You Time Month-End Forex Rebalancing Flows?

29 May 2025

Can You Time Month-End Forex Rebalancing Flows? Understanding FX Hedging and Dollar Demand   Every month, as the calendar approaches its final days, professional forex...

A-Book vs. B-Book Forex Brokers: Should You Care How Your Broker Handles Trades?

28 May 2025

  A-Book vs. B-Book Forex Brokers: Does It Matter Which One You Choose? A-Book vs. B-Book Forex Brokers: Should You Care How Your Broker Handles...

EURJPY Wave Analysis – 26 May 2025

27 May 2025

EURJPY: ⬆️ Buy – EURJPY reversed from key support level 161.40 – Likely to rise to resistance level 165.00 EURJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 161.40 (which has been reversing the price from the middle.

Understanding USD/CAD Daily Price Action

24 May 2025

Introduction to USDCAD The USD-CAD, commonly known as the “Loonie,” is one of the major currency pairs representing the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Canadian Dollar. This pair reflects economic relations and trade dynamics between two significant North American economies. Traders closely monitor USD/CAD to gauge cross-border economic health, commodity market influences—especially […]

The post Understanding USD/CAD Daily Price Action appeared first on UnitedPips Ltd.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis – Bulls Regaining Momentum

23 May 2025

Introduction to EURUSD The EURUSD pair, commonly referred to as “Fiber,” represents the exchange rate between the Euro, the official currency of the Eurozone, and the United States dollar, the global reserve currency. As the most traded currency pair globally, EUR-USD serves as a benchmark in forex markets. Traders and investors closely monitor this pair […]

The post EUR/USD Daily Analysis – Bulls Regaining Momentum appeared first on UnitedPips Ltd.

Japan machinery orders surge, +13% m/m (expected -1.6%)

22 May 2025

March 2025 machine orders data from Japan sky rocket higher.

+13.4% m/m

  • expected -1.6%, prior 4.3%

+8.4% y/y

  • expected -2.2%, prior 1.5%

---

These data are a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months. It's a volatile data set.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Hardy’s Macro View: Rule #1 for the Trump 2.0 market era.

21 May 2025
This is part one of a four-part article series on how to stay nimble, calm and safe in the turbulent era of Trump 2.0.

Note: This article is marketing material..

This is the first of a four-part article series on how the trading and investing playing field have changed in the Trump 2.0 era, one that is in sharp contrast to everything that came before it, precisely because Trump is trying to upend the global order as we knew it. The enormous market volatility before and after Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements offer some important lessons just as it may tempt us to make some possibly very dangerous conclusions. But now to the chase….

Preview: what just happened that burned both the bulls and the bears? This past weekend and Monday were a microcosm of the Trump presidency and its interaction with the markets. After closing lasts week on a strong note, US equity markets were suddenly in bad shape briefly early Monday before rallying strongly to close in the green on the day. The brief bout of pessimism was touched off in part by the latest fears that Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax cut and spending bill that is winding its way through the House of Representatives risks spiking US treasury yields as it seems his administration is failing to make any credible effort to lower deficits. Moody’s, the bond ratings agency, added to this fear with a downgrade of US treasuries from their AAA reading, that last major bond ratings agency to do so. As well, US Treasury Secretary Bessent warned on Sunday that those punitive Liberation Day tariffs could be imposed for countries after all if they don’t negotiate “in good faith” – whatever that means. And somehow, come the market open, the market brushes away the fears and rallies to a new high for the month.

This push and pull of sudden jumps from optimism to pessimism and back is like a little microcosm of what has unfolded for US equity markets since Trump took office in late January. First we had the massive cratering of confidence on the US DOGE cutting spending and US president Trump on the trade warpath with tariffs here, tariffs there and tariffs everywhere. This culminated at the early April lows when Trump very briefly allowed the very high new "Liberation Day" tariffs against all major US trading partners announced on April 2 to take effect before suddenly announcing a 90-day suspension of those tariffs to allow time to negotiate bilateral trade deals with all US trading partners.

Because China was not included in the Liberation Day tariff suspension, the market comeback was held back until Monday, May 12, after a weekend agreement in Geneva, Switzerland between the US and China saw the huge 145% US tariffs on China reduced to 30% and the China's 125% tariffs on US reduced to 10%.  That helped clear the way for last week’s rally as what an FT columnist has dubbed the “TACO trade” was engaged once again: Trump Always Chickens Out. This is the oft repeated pattern of Trump staking out a wild policy position that he then largely backtracks from later. First the horror and selling and then the huge sigh of relief and rally when Trump backs off. Arguably, since inauguration day, we have seen one enormous TACO trade. And yet, uncertainty remains and changes are still afoot.

Chart: The great fall and recovery – symptomatic of the Trump 2.0 era? The market was very bullish in anticipation when Trump won the election in 2024 as everyone remembered the great equity market runup in 2017 as Trump slashed taxes for companies and individuals. But this time, the fun didn’t last for long as the disruptive DOGE, immigration crackdowns, and not least massive tariff announcements threatened sentiment and the outlook. The fear levels peaked in early April when Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs were allowed to go into effect very briefly before a suspension for negotiations was announced.

Source: Saxo

What is the outlook now that we are back to flat on US equities in 2025? TACO trade or not, many are breathing a sigh of relief after the disorienting volatility now that we have come more or less full circle since the beginning of the year, with US equities back to about flat on the year. Note that global investors are not as happy as US-based investors, as the major US equity indices are actually still down on the year in EUR terms and especially in JPY or CHF terms, as the US dollar has fallen.

With things a bit calmer after the bulls were burned from February into early April, and the bears were positively barbecued from the early April lows until mid-May, we should take stock of any lessons we can learn that will help us avoid excess drama in our portfolios. To help in this effort, I have come up with four axioms or “rules” for the Trump 2.0 era that can hopefully help investors and traders stay a bit safer in this environment. The first rule is:

Rule #1: Policy and market volatility are going to continue – embrace it.

Trump might “chicken out” at times, but the underlying policy moves are for real and a deadly serious shift in US economic statecraft and industrial policy that is a response to massive instabilities that have been growing for years.

Like his style or hate it, Trump is the first US president to take a serious stab at reversing the imbalances that the post-WWII system created, particularly since the mid-1990’s. For the last few decades, mercantilist powers like Germany, Japan, South Korea and above all China took advantage of the USD-based global order to keep their currencies artificially cheap to encourage a buildup of export-driven industrial capacity. The system required the US to run permanent large deficits to send enough US dollars for the world to use the US dollar as the chief global reserve currency. This allowed US to afford a high living standard, even as the setup drove a worsening inequality problem at home as manufacturing job disappeared, just as it drove a hollowing out the US industrial base.

Now, Trump is using tariffs, trade rules, and alliances as levers for American advantage, essentially playing the same game that mercantilist states have been playing, but now in reverse. Just because he takes 7 steps forward and 5 steps back doesn’t mean we aren’t going somewhere. And ironically, perhaps precisely at times when things have calmed down nicely, Trump feels emboldened to unleash a fresh policy initiative that sets everyone on edge all over again.

What does this mean for your investments and trading?

Make sure that you see the forest for the trees – the question is the speed with which, not whether we are detonating the old global order. Yes, Trump nearly always backtracks (TACO’s) on unrealistically strong policy moves to avoid excess immediate damage to market confidence, knowing that his legacy will “wear” the stock market performance under his time at the helm. But his chaotic style is forcing real change by economic players on the ground. Companies must now consider making huge and possibly expensive changes to diversify or reshore their supply chains that would never have been taken unless the Trump administration wasn’t cracking the whip. The speed is always a huge question mark in this new regime, but the direction of travel isn’t. Consider the single, if very large, case of Apple – which still produces most of its iPhones in China. Even as Trump carved out exceptions to eye-watering tariff levels it imposed on China to allow Apple to continue to export iPhones and other gear to the US at reduced levels, Apple announced that it would shift its production of iPhones to India. This sparked fresh Trump anger as he clearly wants those iPhones produced in the USA. A move to India is already expensive for Apple, but a move to the US would be far more so. And can Apple afford to lose market share by passing on all of those costs to its customers? Other companies will have to make similar considerations, but for especially critical industries that are needed. Which leads us to….

Figure out who will benefit. This transformation in US economic statecraft will likely not end up being across the board, but aimed mostly at specific, strategic industries that keep the gears of the US economy going around and its people comfortable for which the US cannot rely on far-flung or adversarial countries like China for supply chains. That is still a lot of industries – everything related to digital, pharmaceuticals, energy and all transport infrastructure (especially shipping, which China completely dominates), high tech and even basic industrial low-tech and if it is an input to any of the above. Only low value add industries like recreational goods and some textiles might largely escape US tariff focus. The US tariffs will mean higher costs and lower profit margins for some companies that need to invest in reshoring or diversifying their supply chains. But other companies might benefit from a protectionist umbrella that avoids the profit-destroying competition with especially Chinese companies that aren’t interest in profits but only servicing the Chinese mandate to control productive capacity. Think ship-building as per above, dual military-civilian technologies in chips and even shipping containers, nuclear energy, pharmaceuticals and strategic commodities like rare earths.

Realize that the Fed isn’t what it used to be: no more bailouts just to avoid volatility. Because of the massive uncertainty on growth and especially inflation that Trump’s economic and economic statecraft is generating, the Fed has been sidelined as it can’t provide the kind of support that it has provided at nearly every turn at least as far back as 1998 when it bailed out the notorious LTCM hedge fund. Excessive Fed easing only keeps alive operators in the economy that otherwise wouldn’t’ stay alive, and are therefore a dead weight, productivity drain on the US economy. As well, any Fed easing from here will likely have far more to do with keeping the US treasury market functioning smoothly and the US government able to pay its bills than at supporting asset market prices (even if the effect can at times be the same.) It’s hard to believe after the nearly three decades that the central banks were masters of the universe, but those days are over. We are in a new era of fiscal dominance, in which government policy is in the drivers’ seat – i.e., Trump and the Republicans are at the wheel. That will remain the case at least until after the US mid-terms in late 2026, and possibly beyond if the Republicans retain control of the House and Senate, and to some degree anyway as long as Trump maintains the ability to make significant policy moves like those on tariffs through executive order.

Stay tuned next week for Rule #2 of the Trump 2.0 market era.

John J. HardyGlobal Head of Macro StrategySaxo Bank
Topics: Macro Trump Version 2 - Traders Trump Version 2 - Investors Equities Highlighted articles

USD/CAD remains weak near 1.3950 ahead of Canadian CPI release

20 May 2025

The USD/CAD pair softens to near 1.3950 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Greenback edges lower against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on a surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating late on Friday and renewed trade tensions.

Is President Trump Allowed to Accept an Airplane from Qatar?

18 May 2025

The recent decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to accept a luxurious Boeing 747-8 airplane valued at approximately $400 million from Qatar has ignited significant controversy in the United States, drawing legal, ethical, and political scrutiny. Many are asking: Is it legal for Trump to accept the airplane gift?

Qartar's Airplane Gift and Its Status

Qatar presented the airplane to President Trump during his recent visit to the Gulf state, prompting questions such as "Why did Qatar gift Trump an airplane?" The luxurious aircraft, intended for use as Air Force One, has already arrived in the United States and is currently grounded at San Antonio International Airport. Preliminary retrofitting work is reportedly underway, preparing the jet for potential official use as Air Force One.

Legal Concerns: Foreign Emoluments Clause and Congressional Approval

At the heart of the controversy is the Foreign Emoluments Clause of the U.S. Constitution, which explicitly prohibits any federal official, including the President, from accepting gifts from foreign states without explicit consent from Congress. Legal analysis suggests that regardless of whether the airplane is intended for personal or government use, accepting such an extravagant gift without congressional approval seems to directly conflict with constitutional requirements. People are specifically searching for "Foreign Emoluments Clause Trump airplane" and asking, "Is Trump violating Constitution by accepting Qatar jet?"

Political and Ethical Opposition

The issue has triggered substantial bipartisan criticism. Democratic legislators have initiated congressional investigations into Trump's Qatar airplane gift, demanding transparency and legal justification from both the Department of Justice and White House Counsel. Several Republican lawmakers have joined the chorus, voicing concerns over national security risks and the ethical implications, with public and political figures openly discussing "Who opposes Trump airplane gift from Qatar?" and "Bipartisan criticism Trump Qatar airplane."

Ethics watchdogs and advocacy groups emphasize that allowing the gift sets a troubling precedent, potentially undermining public trust in government institutions and raising severe concerns over potential foreign influence in U.S. politics.

Status of Opposition and Current Actions

Currently, opposition is gaining momentum through congressional investigations led by the House Judiciary Committee. Legal experts anticipate swift legal action and possible lawsuits against Trump's airplane gift if President Trump attempts to officially utilize the aircraft without obtaining congressional consent. Such actions could include lawsuits filed by congressional representatives or ethics advocacy organizations aimed at securing injunctions against the use of the jet pending comprehensive judicial review.

Expected Next Moves and Predictions: Will courts block Trump from using Qatar airplane?

If President Trump proceeds to officially use the airplane, opponents are expected to immediately seek legal intervention through the courts, prompting questions like, "Will courts block Trump from using Qatar airplane?" Initial measures would likely include filing motions for temporary restraining orders or preliminary injunctions to halt any official use of the plane. This would force the matter into expedited judicial review, ensuring quick clarification on the legality of accepting the gift.

Additionally, congressional leaders will likely call urgent hearings regarding Trump's Qatar airplane congressional hearings to address constitutional and national security implications, putting further political pressure on the administration to either formally seek congressional approval or reconsider acceptance of the gift.

Estimating the Outcome as President Trump Remains Firm to Accept the Airplane Gift from Qatar

Given the clear wording of the Constitution’s Foreign Emoluments Clause and strong bipartisan concerns, opponents of the airplane's acceptance appear to have significant leverage. Historically, courts have generally supported strict interpretations of constitutional clauses designed to prevent conflicts of interest and foreign influence. Therefore, it is a well-founded estimation—though not guaranteed—that legal challenges could successfully halt the airplane’s official use unless explicit congressional authorization is obtained.

In conclusion, while President Trump remains firm in his stance, the likelihood of opponents successfully requiring formal congressional approval remains high, reflecting constitutional clarity, bipartisan political alignment, and historical judicial precedent.

This analysis is an estimation based on current available legal opinions, political dynamics, and historical precedents, emphasizing the necessity of formal congressional consent for high-value gifts from foreign entities. It is not a formal legal analysis. Always do your own reseach. Stay tuned with ForexLive.com, evolving to investingLive.com later this year.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.