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Options Brief - Apple record, Hormuz thaw - 4 May 2026

05 May 2026
The S&P 500 just closed at an all-time high - and the options market is pricing 50% more volatility than the market is actually delivering. That gap, currently 5.8 points between implied and realised vol, is one of the clearest signals in short-premium territory we've seen in weeks.

Options Brief - Apple record, Hormuz thaw - 4 May 2026

Markets balance a tireless AI rally against a creeping energy-inflation drag – and the options market is caught in between.

US equities closed Friday at fresh records, powered by Apple’s fiscal Q2 earnings beat and a resilient AI-driven tech rally that has largely absorbed both higher oil prices and the ongoing Iran conflict. Over the weekend, the US announced plans to begin reopening commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a development driving a broad risk-on move across Asia and Europe this morning, and sharpening a market already caught between two distinct tail risks: the tireless semiconductor rally on one side, and a creeping energy-inflation drag on the other.

Headline driver

Apple delivers, Hormuz opens – risk-on takes hold.

Apple’s fiscal Q2 results – revenue of $111.2 billion, up 17% year on year, with earnings per share of $2.01, up 22% – arrived Thursday evening and sent the stock roughly 3% higher on Friday. That move, combined with continued momentum in semiconductors and AI-related names, was enough to push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to fresh all-time highs by the close. The Dow Jones lagged, weighed by healthcare and industrials.

Over the weekend, the US government announced plans to begin reopening commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely closed to traffic since the Iran war began in late February. The move has triggered a broad risk-on response in Monday’s Asian and European sessions, with South Korea’s KOSPI surging more than 4% to a fresh record and European indices gaining across the board in early trade.

The backdrop, as Bloomberg’s options desk noted over the weekend, is a market caught between two tail risks: the tireless AI and semiconductor rally on one side, and the gradual drag from higher energy prices on the other. Equity markets have largely shrugged off elevated oil – Brent crude remains near $108 – as earnings momentum has been strong enough to absorb the headwind. But inflation is re-accelerating in both the US and Europe, and central banks are signalling that higher oil prices mean no easy rate cuts.

Market snapshot

Records in New York, a rally across Asia and Europe – with Japan and China on holiday.

  • US equities (Friday 1 May close): S&P 500 +0.29% to 7,230.12 (record). Nasdaq 100 +0.94% to 27,710.36 (record). Dow Jones –0.31% to 49,499.27. Russell 2000 +0.46% to 2,812.82.
  • Asia (Monday 4 May, current session): KOSPI +4.57% to approximately 6,900 – a fresh all-time high, extending a year-to-date gain of roughly 55% driven by the AI memory chip boom. Hang Seng +1.71%, Hang Seng Tech +2.86%. Japan and China closed for public holiday.
  • Europe (Monday 4 May, early session): DAX +1.41%, AEX +1.70%. European markets broadly higher on the Hormuz reopening announcement.
  • Commodities: WTI crude oil $101.65 (–0.28% Friday). Brent crude $108.09 (–0.07% Friday). Gold $4,618 (–0.57% Friday). Bitcoin +2.34% to $80,356.
  • Rates and FX: US 10-year yield 4.37%, largely unchanged. DXY 98.21.
  • S&P 500 futures (Monday morning): +0.14% to 7,268.50, suggesting a modestly positive open.

Volatility regime: VIX 17.4 / SPX 20-day realised vol 11.6% (annualised, declining) – an implied volatility premium of +5.8 points. Options are pricing approximately 50% more volatility than the market is delivering. SPX sits 5.98% above its 50-day moving average. Current regime: low vol, trending higher.

Options angle

IV crush, term structure contango, and a short-gamma Europe – three angles for options traders today.

VIX spot closed Friday at 16.99, down 1.72 points on the week from 18.71 – a notable compression as equities recovered to records. Front-month VIX futures settled at 19.40, maintaining a steep contango of roughly 2.4 points relative to spot. The ICE BofA MOVE index (rates volatility) rose 3.44 points on the week to 70.41 – equity vol is compressing while rates vol is expanding, reflecting the bond market’s sensitivity to re-accelerating inflation driven by elevated oil. SKEW closed at 141.38, indicating persistent demand for far out-of-the-money downside protection even as spot VIX stays contained.

In the Nasdaq 100, call skew remains flat – investors are still buying calls to chase the rally rather than hedging against it. Communication Services saw the largest increase in hedging costs of any S&P 500 sector last week. In European equity derivatives, the setup is more nuanced: dealers in the Euro Stoxx 50 are positioned short gamma, which creates asymmetric gap risk in both directions – a Hormuz resolution could trigger an amplified upside move as dealers scramble to hedge, while a breakdown in talks risks a rapid downside acceleration. Nvidia’s earnings on 20 May are shaping up as the next major volatility event for both tech and the broader market.

Apple delivered the session’s sharpest options story. Pre-earnings implied volatility had priced a 3.5% move – roughly double the stock’s 1.8% average post-earnings swing over the prior four quarters. The stock moved approximately 3% higher on the results, landing inside the inflated implied range, and short-dated implied volatility collapsed immediately – a textbook IV crush (the rapid deflation of options premium following a binary event) that left options buyers with expensive, quickly deflating contracts. Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight – selling the earnings straddle when the implied move is stretched. Apple’s setup illustrated a classic edge: when the market prices a post-earnings move materially above a stock’s historical average, selling a short-dated straddle – receiving premium on both the call and the put simultaneously – can generate positive returns if the stock stays within the inflated implied range. The statistical advantage lies in identifying when fear is being over-priced relative to history. A 3.5% implied move against a 1.8% historical average is a meaningful divergence; the stock’s eventual 3% move, while close to the implied range, still left straddle sellers with positive carry after the IV crush.

Strategy insight – low vol bull regime: favour premium collection over protection. With VIX at 17.4 and 20-day realised vol at just 11.6%, the current implied volatility premium of +5.8 points sits firmly in short-premium territory. In a low-vol, trending-higher environment, strategies that collect premium – covered calls, iron condors, short strangles – have a structural edge over those that buy it. The steepness of the VIX term structure (spot 17.4, front-month futures 19.40) reinforces this: futures that trade above spot gradually roll down toward it as expiry approaches, creating an additional tailwind for short-vol positions. The caveat is the European gamma setup: short-gamma dealer positioning means gap risk is real if the Hormuz situation moves sharply in either direction – size positions accordingly.

Conclusion

Friday delivered a clean record-close setup: tech leads, Apple delivers, S&P and Nasdaq push to all-time highs, Dow lags on sector composition. Monday adds a geopolitical kicker – the Hormuz reopening plan has lit a fire under the KOSPI (+4.57%, fresh record) and lifted European bourses broadly in early trade. The week ahead brings the April jobs report on Friday (consensus: 62,000 – a sharp step down from 178,000 prior), a Fed on hold and fractured at 3.50–3.75%, and a mid-week ISM services print that could reset rate expectations if it surprises.

The current regime is low vol bull, but the SKEW, the MOVE, and the dealer gamma setup in Europe are all telling you the same thing: the market has not forgotten the tail risks – it has simply decided to stop paying for them at every ask. For now, that is the correct trade. Nvidia on 20 May will be the next test of whether that conviction holds.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.
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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3502; (P) 1.3557; (R1) 1.3660; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 1.3158 is in progress for 61.8% projection of 1.3158 to 1.3598 from 1.3453 at 1.3725 first. Firm break there will target a retest on 1.3867 high. For now, risk will stay on the […]

The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on ActionForex.

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Bank of America – should investors buy after strong Q1 2026 results?

28 Apr 2026

Bank of America delivered a strong Q1 2026 report, with earnings exceeding expectations. The Stochastic indicator emerging from oversold territory suggests a potential continuation of the share price uptrend.

For Q1 2026, Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) delivered a strong set of results, exceeding market expectations on earnings. Revenue increased to 30.3 billion USD, net income totalled 8.6 billion USD, and earnings per share reached 1.11 USD, above consensus estimates. The main driver once again was net interest income, which rose 9% to 15.7 billion USD.

Additional support came from trading operations, investment banking fees, and the wealth management business. At the same time, expenses grew at a noticeably slower pace than revenue, indicating effective cost control. Credit quality remained resilient, while lower provisions for credit losses provided a further positive signal.

This article provides a detailed review of Bank of America Corporation, presents a fundamental analysis of Bank of America’s quarterly results, and, based on the recent price performance of Bank of America shares, includes a technical analysis of BAC, forming the basis for the forecast for BAC shares in 2026.

About Bank of America Corporation

Bank of America Corporation is one of the world’s largest financial institutions, offering a broad range of banking and related services. Amadeo Giannini founded the bank in 1904 in San Francisco, US, under the name Bank of Italy, which was rebranded as Bank of America in 1930. The modern corporation emerged in 1998 following a merger with NationsBank.

Bank of America offers a broad range of services, including retail and corporate banking, investment and insurance products, asset management, and mortgage and lending services. Its headquarters are in Charlotte, North Carolina, US.

The bank’s IPO occurred in 1957 when its shares began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker BAC. Bank of America is among the largest banks in the US and worldwide, serving clients in more than 35 countries and managing assets exceeding 2.4 trillion USD.

Image of the Bank of America Corporation’s name

Bank of America Corporation’s main revenue streams

Bank of America’s key areas of financial interest, which generate revenue, span various business lines, including retail, corporate, and investment services. These are divided into the following categories:

  • Net interest income: generated from the difference between interest received on issued loans and interest paid to clients on deposits and other borrowed funds. Bank of America offers a broad range of financial products, including mortgages, commercial and auto loans, as well as credit cards.
  • Commission income: revenue from client transaction fees, including charges for account maintenance, payment and transfer processing, and asset management.
  • Investment banking income: fees for advisory services on mergers and acquisitions, revenue from equity and bond issuance, and earnings from trading financial instruments such as securities, currencies, and derivatives.
  • Asset management and insurance income: fees for asset management services, insurance premiums, and returns on investments in insurance-related products.
  • Trading and market operations: profits from transactions involving securities, currencies, and derivatives.
  • Other income sources: fees for safe deposit box rentals, returns on investments in sustainable development and infrastructure projects, and profits from holdings of government and corporate bonds.

These areas diversify the bank’s revenue streams, making them more resilient to economic crises, and enable Bank of America to compete effectively in the global market.

Bank of America Corporation’s strengths and weaknesses

Bank of America’s strengths include:

  • Diversified revenue streams: the bank offers a broad range of financial services, including retail banking, investment services, asset management, corporate banking, and insurance. This diversity strengthens Bank of America’s resilience to market fluctuations across multiple segments, allowing it to generate revenue from various sources.
  • Digital innovation: the bank is actively implementing digital technologies, including mobile apps and the virtual assistant Erica. These innovations enhance service quality, improve operational efficiency, and help attract new clients.
  • Strong position in investment banking and asset management: the bank’s competitive advantages in investment and private banking, combined with effective asset management, ensure its leadership in both the US and internationally. As a result, it can offer high-quality services to high-net-worth clients and large international corporations worldwide.
  • Wide network and global presence: with representative offices in more than 35 countries, the bank can serve clients regardless of location. The bank holds a leading position in both domestic and international markets.
  • Substantial capital and liquidity reserves: with extensive financial resources and highly liquid assets, the bank is well-equipped to manage risks and maintain stability during economic downturns effectively.

Bank of America’s weaknesses include:

  • Dependence on interest rates: the bank’s primary revenue stream is derived from the spread between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits. This makes it sensitive to changes in financial regulators’ monetary policy and fluctuations in interest rates. During periods of low rates, profitability typically declines.
  • High operating costs: despite the scale of the corporation and its elevated level of digitalisation, the bank incurs more substantial costs compared to its competitors, including JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC). These costs affect the overall profitability of the transactions.
  • Weakness in certain retail banking segments: although the bank holds a significant market share in the US, it lags behind competitors such as JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo in the retail banking and credit card segments. These banks have a larger client base and more developed service networks.

Overall, Bank of America is a strong player in the financial market thanks to its diversification and innovation. However, it faces challenges, including sensitivity to macroeconomic factors and elevated operating expenses.

Bank of America Corporation Q3 2024 financial results

In October, Bank of America published its Q3 2024 financial results for the quarter ended 30 September. The key data from the report is outlined below:

  • Revenue: 25.30 billion USD (+1%)
  • Net income: 6.90 billion USD (–12%)
  • Earnings per share: 0.81 USD (–10%)
  • Net Interest income: 14.0 billion USD (–3%)

Revenue by segment:

  • Consumer Banking: 10.40 billion USD (–1%)
  • Global Wealth and Investment Management: 5.80 billion USD (+8%)
  • Global Banking: 5.83 billion USD (–6%)
  • Global Markets: 5.60 billion USD (+14%)

Net income by segment:

  • Consumer Banking: 2.70 billion USD (–6%)
  • Global Wealth and Investment Management: 1.10 billion USD (+1%)
  • Global Banking: 1.90 billion USD (–27%)
  • Global Markets: 1.50 billion USD (+25%)

Shareholders received nearly 5.60 billion USD, including 2.00 billion in dividends and 3.50 billion through share buybacks.

Despite a 1% increase in total revenue, the bank’s net income declined by 12%, with profits from banking operations in both the global and US consumer markets falling. However, as in the previous quarter, the investment segment continued to show positive momentum, helping to offset the negative impact of the banking services sector.

Bank of America Corporation Q4 2024 financial results

Bank of America Corporation released its Q4 2024 financial results on 16 January 2025. The key report highlights, compared to the corresponding period of 2023, are outlined below:

  • Revenue: 25.3 billion USD (+15%)
  • Net income: 6.7 billion USD (+112%)
  • Earnings per share: 0.82 USD (+134%)
  • Net interest income: 14.4 billion USD (+3%)

Revenue by segment:

  • Consumer Banking: 10.6 billion USD (+3%)
  • Global Wealth and Investment Management: 6.0 billion USD (+15%)
  • Global Banking: 6.1 billion USD (+3%)
  • Global Markets: 4.8 billion USD (+20%)

Net income by segment:

  • Consumer Banking: 2.8 billion USD (+2%)
  • Global Wealth and Investment Management: 1.2 billion USD (+14%)
  • Global Banking: 2.1 billion USD (–13%)
  • Global Markets: 941 million USD (+27%)

In the Q4 2025 earnings report, Bank of America’s management expressed optimism about the company’s performance and outlook. It was noted that each business line contributed more to revenue, and there was a noticeable increase in deposits and loans granted, surpassing the industry average. Net interest income was projected to range between 14.5 and 14.6 billion USD in Q1 2025, with steady growth expected to bring it to approximately 15.5-15.7 billion USD by Q4 2025. The second half of 2025 was expected to show stronger growth than the first, ensuring an operational advantage throughout 2025.

Bank of America Corporation Q1 2025 financial results

On 15 April, Bank of America released its Q1 2025 financial results for the quarter ended 31 March. Its key highlights are provided below:

  • Revenue: 27.37 billion USD (+6%)
  • Net income: 7.40 billion USD (+11%)
  • Earnings per share: 0.90 USD (+18%)
  • Net interest income: 14.44 billion USD (+3%)

Revenue by segment:

  • Consumer Banking: 10.49 billion USD (+3%)
  • Global Wealth and Investment Management: 6.02 billion USD (+7%)
  • Global Banking: 5.97 billion USD (0%)
  • Global Markets: 6.58 billion USD (+12%)

Net income by segment:

  • Consumer Banking: 2.53 billion USD (–4%)
  • Global Wealth and Investment Management: 1.00 billion USD (0%)
  • Global Banking: 1.91 billion USD (–3%)
  • Global Markets: 1.94 billion USD (+13%)

Bank of America’s Q1 2025 report showed strong results, exceeding Wall Street expectations and instilling cautious optimism in investors. Income growth was primarily driven by trading revenues, especially in the stock sector, which saw a 17% increase amid a general surge in market activity across leading US banks.

Despite the positive results, Bank of America remains cautious about the economic situation. CEO Brian Moynihan noted potential risks associated with new tariffs and global uncertainty. However, he did not expect a recession in the US economy in 2025, with CFO Alastair Borthwick describing the economy as one that is slowly growing.

In Q1 2025, Bank of America increased provisions for possible loan losses from 1.3 to 1.5 billion USD, indicating the bank’s cautious approach to credit risks amid economic uncertainty.

For income-focused investors, the bank maintained its quarterly dividend at 0.26 USD per share, confirming its commitment to returning capital to its shareholders.

For Q2 2025, Bank of America’s management did not issue a specific forecast. However, the bank expects net interest income to grow by 6–7% in 2025 and to reach between 15.5 and 15.7 billion USD by Q4 2025, reiterating the guidance provided in the commentary to the Q4 2024 report. The primary driver of interest income was the consumer services sector.

Bank of America Corporation Q2 2025 financial results

On 16 July, Bank of America released its Q2 2025 financial results for the quarter ended 30 June. The key results are outlined below, compared with the same quarter a year earlier:

  • Revenue: 27.51 billion USD (+4%)
  • Net income: 7.11 billion USD (+3%)
  • Earnings per share: 0.89 USD (+7%)
  • Net Interest income: 14.67 billion USD (+7%)

Revenue by segment:

  • Consumer Banking: 10.81 billion USD (+6%)
  • Global Wealth and Investment Management: 5.93 billion USD (+7%)
  • Global Banking: 5.69 billion USD (–7%)
  • Global Markets: 6.01 billion USD (+10%)

Net income by segment:

  • Consumer Banking: 2.97 billion USD (+14%)
  • Global Wealth and Investment Management: 0.99 billion USD (–3%)
  • Global Banking: 1.70 billion USD (–19%)
  • Global Markets: 1.56 billion USD (+10%)

Bank of America delivered solid quarterly results, with net income in Q2 2025 rising to 7.1 billion USD (89 cents per share), beating analyst expectations and marking a 3% year-on-year increase, even though total revenue came in slightly below forecasts. The main growth drivers were the record net interest income of 14.7 billion USD (+7%) and a sharp rise in trading revenue to 5.3 billion USD (+14%), amid heightened market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty.

Management struck a confident tone. CEO Brian Moynihan noted stable consumer spending, high credit quality, and organic growth in both loans and deposits. The bank has now reported growth in current account numbers for 26 consecutive quarters, while total loan volume rose by 6-8%. The CFO emphasised that net interest income is expected to continue rising and could reach 15.5-15.7 billion USD by Q4, with loan growth projected in the mid-single digits (approximately 4-6%) and operating expenses expected to remain stable or even decline by year-end. Trading income is also expected to grow in the mid-single digits, extending the current 13-quarter streak of positive performance.

The investment banking division remains the main weak point, with fee income down approximately 9% year-on-year, although management expects deal activity to recover towards the end of the year.

In addition, the bank reaffirmed its strategy in the stablecoin segment, outlining plans either to develop its own platform or form a partnership to create institutional-grade digital payments infrastructure.

Bank of America Corporation Q3 2025 financial results

On 15 October, Bank of America released its Q3 2025 financial results for the quarter ended 30 September. The key figures compared with those from the same period a year earlier are as follows:

  • Revenue: 28.08 billion USD (+11%)
  • Net income: 8.46 billion USD (+23%)
  • Earnings per share (EPS): 1.06 USD (+31%)
  • Net interest income: 15.23 billion USD (+9%)

Revenue by segment:

  • Consumer Banking: 11.16 billion USD (+7%)
  • Global Wealth and Investment Management: 6.31 billion USD (+10%)
  • Global Banking: 6.26 billion USD (+7%)
  • Global Markets: 6.22 billion USD (+10%)

Net income by segment:

  • Consumer Banking: 3.44 billion USD (+28%)
  • Global Wealth and Investment Management: 1.27 billion USD (+20%)
  • Global Banking: 2.13 billion USD (+11%)
  • Global Markets: 1.65 billion USD (+4%)

For Q3 2025, Bank of America reported results ahead of expectations. Revenue totalled 28.1 billion USD, net income 8.5 billion USD, and earnings per share 1.06 USD. Return on equity reached 15.4%, exceeding analyst forecasts. The main drivers were the record growth in net interest income and a notable rebound in investment banking fees.

Compared with Q2 2025, the bank’s performance improved. Provisions for potential credit losses fell to 1.3 billion USD (from 1.6 billion USD previously), while loan charge-offs declined by around 10%, indicating stabilisation in the quality of the loan portfolio.

Year-on-year results also showed solid improvement: revenue rose 11%, and earnings per share increased from 0.81 USD to 1.06 USD. Net interest income reached 15.2 billion USD (+9%), supported by higher loan and deposit volumes. Investment banking fees grew 43% to 2.0 billion USD, while trading income rose 9%. Card spending by clients increased 6%, reflecting healthy consumer activity.

Expenses rose moderately – by about 5% – while profit grew at a faster pace. Capital remained strong, with the CET1 ratio at 11.6%. During the quarter, shareholders received a total of 7.4 billion USD: 2.1 billion USD through dividends and 5.3 billion USD via share repurchases.

Management forecasted Q4 2025 net interest income to reach 15.6–15.7 billion USD, up 8% year-on-year. The bank planned to keep expenses under control and continue shareholder distributions while maintaining strong capitalisation.

Bank of America Corporation Q4 2025 financial results

On 14 January 2026, Bank of America released its Q4 2025 financial results for the quarter ended 31 December. Below are the key figures compared with the same period last year:

  • Revenue: 28.39 billion USD (+7%)
  • Net income: 7.60 billion USD (+12%)
  • Earnings per share: 0.98 USD (+18%)
  • Net interest income: 15.89 billion USD (+9%)

Revenue by segment:

  • Consumer Banking: 12.53 billion USD (+7%)
  • Global Wealth and Investment Management: 6.73 billion USD (+9%)
  • Global Banking: 6.18 billion USD (+7%)
  • Global Markets: 5.64 billion USD (+8%)

Net income by segment:

  • Consumer Banking: 3.24 billion USD (+14%)
  • Global Wealth and Investment Management: 1.49 billion USD (+20%)
  • Global Banking: 2.00 billion USD (+5%)
  • Global Markets: 1.33 billion USD (+9%)

For Q4 2025, Bank of America demonstrated strong results, surpassing market expectations for both revenue and profit. Revenue amounted to 28.4 billion USD, slightly above analysts’ consensus forecast (27.5–27.8 billion USD), and net income reached 7.6 billion USD, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase. Earnings per share were 0.98 USD, also exceeding expectations (0.96 USD). The main driver of growth was strong net interest income, which increased by 10% to 15.8 billion USD, highlighting the bank’s ability to generate profits in a high-interest-rate environment.

Markets and trading operations also became important sources of profit. The investment banking and trading businesses delivered solid growth: securities and FX trading recorded a strong increase in profitability, while higher fee income and asset management revenues added further resilience to overall performance. However, despite the strong contribution from non-interest income, the banking margin narrowed slightly, reflecting higher servicing costs associated with increased lending volumes.

Credit quality remained stable despite the backdrop of economic slowdown and elevated rates. Despite higher rates and concerns about potential deterioration in asset quality, the bank was able to reduce provisions for credit losses, which represents a positive signal for its financial resilience. Average loan growth stood at 8%, indicating continued demand for credit from both retail clients and businesses.

Management raised its net interest income guidance for 2026, expecting growth of 5–7%. Elevated interest rates are expected to continue supporting performance in this category. However, given the risk of an economic slowdown and rising expenses, the bank may face longer-term profitability constraints. The outlook for the coming quarters remains moderately positive, with management planning to maintain cost discipline while continuing to return capital to shareholders, including dividends and share buybacks.

Bank of America Corporation Q1 2026 financial results

On 15 April 2026, Bank of America Corporation released its Q1 2026 financial results for the quarter ended 31 March. The key figures compared with the same period last year are as follows:

  • Revenue: 30.27 billion USD (+7%)
  • Net income: 8.58 billion USD (+17%)
  • Earnings per share: 1.11 USD (+25%)
  • Net interest income: 15.75 billion USD (+9%)

Revenue by segment:

  • Consumer Banking: 11.05 billion USD (+5%)
  • Global Wealth and Investment Management: 6.71 billion USD (+12%)
  • Global Banking: 6.29 billion USD (+5%)
  • Global Markets: 7.11 billion USD (+8%)

Net income by segment:

  • Consumer Banking: 3.06 billion USD (+21%)
  • Global Wealth and Investment Management: 1.33 billion USD (+32%)
  • Global Banking: 2.09 billion USD (+8%)
  • Global Markets: 2.01 billion USD (+3%)

For Q1 2026, Bank of America delivered a strong set of results that exceeded market expectations on earnings. Revenue increased to 30.3 billion USD, net income reached 8.6 billion USD, and earnings per share came in at 1.11 USD, compared with 0.89 USD a year earlier.

A key strength of the quarter was the broad-based nature of the growth, rather than reliance on a single segment. Trading revenue rose 13%, with equities revenue surging 30%, while investment banking fees increased 21%. The wealth management segment also contributed positively, with revenue up 12%, supported by higher asset management fees. Against this backdrop, expenses increased by only 4%, and the efficiency ratio improved to 61% from 63% a year earlier, indicating solid cost discipline.

Credit quality remained stable. Provisions for credit losses declined to 1.3 billion USD from 1.5 billion USD a year earlier, while net charge-offs also edged lower year-on-year. However, they increased sequentially due to seasonal effects in credit cards. At the same time, average loans and leases grew 9% to 1.19 trillion USD, average deposits rose 3% to 2.02 trillion USD, and total card spending increased 7% to 245 billion USD. This suggests that demand for banking products and overall consumer activity remains relatively healthy.

Bank of America did not provide formal guidance for Q2 2026 in its published materials. However, management had previously expected at least 7% growth in net interest income for Q1 2026 and had guided for 5–7% growth for the full year 2026. The actual Q1 result exceeded those expectations.

Analysis of key valuation multiples for Bank of America Corporation

Below are the key valuation multiples for Bank of America Corporation based on Q1 2026 results, calculated at a share price of 53 USD.

Multiple What it indicates Value Comment
P/E (TTM) Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio (trailing 12 months) 13.15 ⬤ On current earnings, the valuation appears reasonable.
P/B Price-to-book (P/B) ratio 1.37 ⬤ The valuation relative to book value looks moderate.
P/TBV Market valuation of tangible equity (price-to-tangible book value) 1.84 ⬤ There is a slight premium to tangible book value.
Forward P/E Forward price-to-earnings (forward P/E) ratio 12.16 ⬤ Based on expected earnings, the stock appears attractively valued.
ROE Return on equity (ROE) 12% ⬤ Return on equity is solid, though not exceptional.
ROTCE Return on tangible common equity 16% ⬤ Business quality and capital efficiency remain very strong.
CET1 ratio CET1 capital ratio (risk-weighted basis) 11% ⬤ The capital buffer is comfortable, though not excessive.
Tier 1 Capital Ratio Tier 1 capital ratio 13% ⬤ The balance sheet is resilient, although capital strength is not among the strongest in the sector.
NIM / Net yield excluding Markets Yield on core interest-earning assets (excluding market operations) 2% ⬤ Net interest margin is stable, but lacks clear upward momentum.
Efficiency Ratio / Overhead Ratio Cost-to-income ratio (efficiency ratio) 61% ⬤ Expenses remain relatively high compared with revenue.
NPL Ratio Non-performing loans (NPL) ratio 0.49% ⬤ Credit quality remains sound.
Coverage Ratio Loan loss reserve coverage ratio 225% ⬤ Coverage of non-performing loans appears comfortable.
Payout Ratio Dividend payout ratio 28% ⬤ Shareholder distributions do not create pressure on capital.

Following Q1 2026, Bank of America appears to be a high-quality bank with a moderate valuation. Its key advantage is that the stock does not look overheated on valuation multiples, while profitability and operational efficiency are not yet strong enough to justify a significant premium. As a result, the investment case is better viewed as a gradual improvement story, with the potential for steady share price appreciation rather than a sharp valuation re-rating.

Expert forecasts for Bank of America Corp stock in 2026

  • Barchart: 16 out of 27 analysts rated Bank of America shares as Strong Buy, 5 as Moderate Buy, and 6 as Hold. The upper price target is 71 USD, and the lower bound is 47 USD.
  • MarketBeat: 22 out of 27 analysts assigned a Buy rating, and 5 recommended Hold. The upper price target is 71 USD, and the lower bound is 54 USD.
  • TipRanks: 13 out of 18 analysts rated the shares as Buy, and 1 as Hold. The upper price target is 71 USD, and the lower bound is 55 USD.
  • Stock Analysis: 8 out of 21 experts rated the shares as Strong Buy, 9 as Buy, and 4 as Hold. The upper price target is 71 USD, and the lower bound is 47 USD.
Expert forecasts for Bank of America Corporation stock for 2026

Bank of America Corporation stock price forecast for 2026

On the weekly chart, Bank of America shares continue to trade within an ascending channel and have reached the upper boundary, which is acting as resistance. At the same time, the Stochastic indicator is emerging from oversold territory, suggesting that the recent correction may be complete and that the upward move could resume, with the potential for a breakout above the channel. Based on the current price dynamics of BAC shares, the potential scenarios for 2026 are as follows:

The primary forecast for BAC shares assumes a break above the historical high at 57 USD, which could act as a catalyst for further upside, with the price advancing by the width of the ascending channel towards 73 USD.

The alternative forecast for BAC stock assumes a rejection from the upper channel boundary. In this case, BAC could retest support at 46 USD. A rebound from this level would signal a resumption of the uptrend, with the upside target again at 73 USD.

Bank of America Corporation stock analysis and forecast for 2026

Risks of investing in Bank of America Corporation

stock

Risks of investing in Bank of America Corporation shares include several factors:

  • Interest rate sensitivity: Bank of America’s profitability is closely tied to interest rates. Rate hikes boost asset returns but also increase the cost of raised deposits, potentially reducing net interest income. If the Federal Reserve begins to lower rates, as some analysts predict, this could negatively impact interest income and BAC stock valuation.
  • Economic and political uncertainty: a return to the tariff policy under the Trump administration caused market volatility, temporarily increasing trading revenues but also raising uncertainty. Issues in international relations, particularly with China, may affect global markets and reduce BAC’s revenues from international operations.
  • Lower investment banking revenues: amid uncertainty, market activity in the mergers and acquisitions sector and IPOs has slowed, leading to lower fee income.
  • Credit risks: increased loan loss provisions suggest the bank expects a possible rise in defaults, particularly on commercial loans. The share of overdue loans is increasing, which could result in write-offs and lower fee income.

Although the Bank of America shows resilience across several areas, investors should consider the above risks as they may exert pressure on the company’s future financial performance.

Open Account

EURJPY Wave Analysis – 24 April 2026

25 Apr 2026

EURJPY: ⬆️ Buy – EURJPY reversed from support area – Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9270 EURJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support area between the key support level 186.00 (former monthly high from February) and the.

Gold is ready for short-term suffering for a higher goal

22 Apr 2026

In the short term, gold is volatile due to geopolitical factors, but in the medium to long term, it retains its growth potential thanks to monetary policy and central bank demand.

The FX Trader: A gentle USD consolidation. CAD leading the pack.

21 Apr 2026
USD rebounds but far from threatening bearish case.

The latest

USD rebounded slightly on latest oil spike. The week is off to a rocky start for risk sentiment and the US dollar rallied briefly after the latest headlines from the war in Iran spiked crude oil prices and general uncertainty once again on the status of shipping traffic through the Hormuz Strait. Iran, or at least some Iranian sources, claim that the strait will remain “closed” even as the US fired on a disabled an Iranian cargo vessel. It is also unknown whether an Iranian delegation will even show up at the peace talks scheduled to take place this week in Islamabad, Pakistan. And yet, the amplitude of the USD rebound was modest, keeping the bearish USD case well intact, outside of USDJPY, which just doesn’t seem to want to fire to the downside. That pair has been locked up in the tight range centered around 159.00 for over five weeks now.

CAD goldilocks? (Note: this paragraph written just before Canada reports its March CPI data). The strongest G10 currency of the last five trading days is CAD, which still leaves it far from trending higher across the board. Still, it has shown a notable divergence from the US dollar, which it often weakly tracks in the crosses (take AUDUSD and AUDCAD, with an r2 of the last 1000 trading days of 0.46 and for the last 200 trading days of 0.92 (!). It is far too early to discuss an independent path for CAD, but one could argue that it is insulated from global energy disruptions, has vastly increased its oil export capacity via sea since late 2024 and is interested in building more export capacity. At the same time, the country might enjoy the benefits of any US building and reindustrialization and supply chain friendshoring boom via its huge trade exposures with its southern neighbor. And while the latest Canadian data is at the lower end of the range relative to expectations, according to Citigroup economic surprise index, it would suggest that little hope is priced in for the currency, keeping the bar low for upside surprises.

Strong scandies. Despite the risk-off tone in Europe this morning, we have both SEK and NOK on the rise versus the single currency, with EURSEK eyeing the 10.75 range low of the last month, while EURNOK is testing below 11.00 again. The spike low in EURNOK of 10.935 from mid-March is the lowest level for that pair since early 2023 – so plenty of room for further NOK strength, perhaps into 10.00 eventually assuming.

Incoming data on Tuesday (all times GMT)

  • Monday 2245 (Tuesday in Asia)- New Zealand Q1 Inflation data: a key data point for the RBNZ rate trajectory, which has been drastically repriced since the October low in yields. The late May meeting is at 5-6 bps of hiking priced in, while the July meeting is at +19 bps. This data points could impact the pricing significantly.

  • Tuesday 0600 - the UK’s latest jobless claims, employment and payrolls data, possibly giving sterling a chance to make a statement, something it has very much not been doing lately as EURGBP remains bottled up in a tight range below 0.8750.

  • Tuesday 1230 – US Mar. Retail Sales. Not traditionally a market mover, but can be in the event of a large surprise – and March should be interesting for the degree of the surprise, given the impact of the Iran War – even if the market likely willing to discount a lot of variance.

Chart focus: USDCAD ready to power lower? USDCAD is breaking down now after punching lower through the former range high near 1.3750. There is still a chunk of range to work with to the huge 1.3500 area. But looking at a longer-term chart, it’s hard to see why the pair can’t get back to 1.3000 eventually in a weak US dollar environment. As noted above, economic surprises relative to expectations have been about as bad as they get, and CAD might enjoy both somewhat higher and considerably lower oil prices (as other nations diversify supply chains), if not extremes in oil prices in either direction.

Source: Saxo

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength. Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

While CAD has seen the largest positive momentum shift over the last five trading days, AUD remains, NOK is hot on its heels and also enjoys the high energy prices, while the latter has by far the highest trend strength of any G10 currency. On the weak side, the Japanese yen seems terminally weak, though a flash of strength Friday was interesting.

 

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

According to our trend measure, today is the first day that USDCAD finds itself in a new downtrend. Elsewhere, the EURSEK uptrend is set to reverse to a downtrend very soon if the price action maintains below 10.80 or so. And while gold looks to reverse its downtrend today on a close near 4,800, a punchy acceleration to clear the recent range highs would give bulls more confidence. Silver flipped to positive on Friday, but the setup is similar to that of gold.

 

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..
John J. HardyGlobal Head of Macro StrategySaxo Bank
Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

New Zealand data: March exports and imports both jump from February

20 Apr 2026

New Zealand monthly trade suprlus for March 2026.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

What now after the "biblical vol reset"?

17 Apr 2026
Massive stock comeback ahead of earnings season.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

So exactly how remarkable has the recent US market behaviour been? Very! Warren Pies breaks it down for us.

Can you build a Bloomberg terminal entirely with AI for free? Michael Kao is trying - certainly not free in terms of the labor applied or the expertise needed to know how to go about this attempt. A great and superbly written substack post on the lessons he has learned along the way in building something quite remarkable and with some interesting conclusions. Try the product out here - it is amazing.

Why US equity market valuations are where they are - and why it might change. This Odd Lots podcast rhymes with the points made by Peter Garnry on his most recent Saxo Market Call appearance in Februarywhen he talked about “the great pool of profits” the Mag7 created, one that may be running much lower, at least in terms of growth and size relative to the economy.

A Substack posttrying to figure out why US sentiment readings are so poor in a supposedly okay economy.

TLDR on stablecoins and US “reclaiming financial sovereignty” via their use. A white paper for anyone not up to speed on this(I include myself to a degree in that group still - also a bookmark for me to read!).

The new Iranian regime - even worse than the old one? This would fit with many of Robert Pape’s arguments. Is Iran just buying time here?

The state of play in equity and private capital/direct lending. Golden observations from Howard Marks, a master investor - wish he could read them aloud in a more engaging way!

Chart of the Day - Tick-tock as market cap heavies outperform

While the S&P 500 Index making all time new highs has justifiably grabbed headlines, especially on the neck-snapping reversal of momentum as the near-correction became an outright melt-up, it was the big market cap giants that have lead the way higher, with the median stock outperforming, a divergence that bears tracking in coming days for further development. Yesterday, for example, saw more losers than gainers on an overall solid 0.8% advance for the market. The chart below shows the S&P 500 Index versus the Equal Weight Index. The last two major divergence before this one were in early 2025 just before the meltdown into Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements - at that time with the standard index outperforming the equal-weight index, which was not posting new highs in February 2025. Then we saw a major episode of divergence just ahead of . This last episode may have been driven chiefly by AI-impact fears that struck larger market cap companies disproportionately (hyperscaling big cap-ex spenders plus the AI-disrupting-all-software theme). These latter have now come storming back relative to the median stock as represented by the equal-weight S&P 500, taking the standard index to an all-time high while the equal-weight index lags. Given how beaten down some major names still are, there could be room for further outperformance of the market-cap weighted index if benchmark chasers are forced to load up on passive instruments tracking the major index.

Source: Bloomberg

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at [email protected].
This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.
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Saxo Bank
Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Options Brief - Iran deal hope, PPI beat - 15 April 2026

16 Apr 2026

Options Brief – Iran deal hope, PPI beat – 15 April 2026

Oil collapsed 8% on a White House hint, PPI came in cold, and equities built on their recovery – with a live binary ceasefire deadline six sessions away.

Tuesday’s session delivered two simultaneous tailwinds: March wholesale inflation came in well below expectations, and the White House signalled that a second round of US–Iran talks was under discussion ahead of the April 21 ceasefire expiry. WTI crude futures fell roughly 8% to close near $91 per barrel – the sharpest single-session drop of the conflict period – while the S&P 500 gained 1.18% and the Nasdaq added 1.96%. VIX closed at 18.36, a notably low close for the conflict period. Risk assets lifted broadly on the session; the April 21 deadline remains a live event risk worth monitoring closely.

Headline driver

Deal optimism and an inflation surprise arrived on the same day – markets took both.

  • US–Iran talks signal: The two-week ceasefire expires on April 21. Weekend negotiations in Islamabad ended without a deal – Iran rejected a US proposal to suspend nuclear activity for 20 years, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. However, President Trump indicated new talks “could be happening over the next two days,” and the White House confirmed a second round is under consideration. Markets priced the headline optimistically: WTI crude futures fell roughly 8%, the energy sector declined more than 2%, and equities rallied on the prospect that the blockade may resolve before it inflicts lasting macro damage.
  • March PPI – better than feared: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.5% in March, against a consensus of 1.1%. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, gained just 0.1% versus a 0.5% forecast; services inflation was flat. Energy prices surged 8.5% within the index – gasoline alone jumped 15.7% – but the feared second-order pass-through into services pricing has not yet materialised. Year-on-year, headline PPI stands at 4.0% and core at 3.8%, both elevated, but the session-on-session miss gave markets permission to look past the number.

Market pulse: Geopolitical and inflation signals moved in the same direction on Tuesday – both suggested resolution rather than escalation, and positioning adjusted swiftly.

Looking ahead – headline driver

Iran headlines remain the dominant risk in either direction heading into today. Confirmation of resumed talks would add momentum to the risk-on move; a signal of breakdown or ceasefire extension uncertainty would reverse it sharply. On the inflation side, CPI data due later this week will be scrutinised for evidence that Tuesday’s PPI miss reflects a genuine trend rather than a one-month anomaly.

Market snapshot

Equities rally, crude collapses, and VIX hits its lowest close since the war began.

  • S&P 500: +1.18%, building on Monday’s reversal and approaching pre-war highs.
  • Nasdaq Composite: +1.96%, led by communication services and consumer discretionary.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.66%.
  • WTI crude oil (May futures): approximately –8% to close near $91.28 per barrel – the sharpest single-session drop of the conflict period, driven by easing supply-risk fears on diplomacy headlines.
  • Energy sector (S&P 500): –2%+, the clear session laggard as crude sold off sharply on deal optimism.
  • BlackRock (BLK): +3.02% to $1,054.56 on Q1 2026 earnings beat – adjusted EPS of $12.53 vs consensus of $11.67; revenue +27% year-on-year to $6.7 billion; record quarterly net inflows of $130 billion.
  • Oracle (ORCL): approximately +5% on an expanded agreement with Bloom Energy to purchase up to 2.8 gigawatts of fuel cell power for AI data centre infrastructure – not earnings-related.
  • Bloom Energy (BE): +22%+ on the Oracle fuel cell deal, additionally supported by a Jefferies price target upgrade.
  • CarMax (KMX): –15.6% (intraday) despite beating adjusted EPS estimates – a GAAP net loss of $0.85 per share, driven by a $141.3 million goodwill impairment charge and restructuring costs, overwhelmed the headline beat.

Market pulse: VIX at 18.36 reflects a market that has substantially repriced geopolitical risk lower – but has done so on a ceasefire that expires in six sessions.

Looking ahead – market snapshot

Equities enter Wednesday near their recovery highs, concentrating headline risk asymmetrically: deal confirmation provides incremental upside, but a ceasefire breakdown from elevated levels would likely trigger a sharp reversal. Earnings flow remains a secondary vol catalyst, with additional financial sector results due this week.

Options angle

VIX at 18.36 with April 21 looming – equity vol compressed, energy premium elevated, live binary in six sessions.

VIX closed at 18.36 on Tuesday – below its long-run historical average and among its lowest closing levels of the conflict period. This compression is not irrational given the softer PPI and deal optimism, but it is time-limited: the April 21 ceasefire expiry is a live event risk that, in our view, the current vol surface is not fully pricing. A VIX at 18 implies smooth continuation of the recovery; it is not, in our view, pricing a ceasefire breakdown.

In energy names, the ~8% single-session collapse in WTI creates a dynamic where realised vol remains elevated but implied vol is compressing. Calendar spreads in energy names straddling the April 21 deadline are one way to play that dynamic with defined risk: elevated front-month premium, cheaper back-month, and the event resolves the spread either way. This is a trade idea, not a directional view – size accordingly. Long straddles on WTI ETFs are the alternative for those who want direct commodity exposure without single-name risk.

BlackRock’s +3.02% close following a clean Q1 beat is a textbook earnings vol crush – IV in BLK and large-cap financials is now at its lowest in weeks. Short-dated iron condors in this segment offer attractive theta collection. The CarMax case makes the contrarian point: a GAAP net loss from a goodwill impairment overwhelmed an adjusted EPS beat, driving a –15.6% intraday move despite the headline number clearing the bar. Any similarly structured earnings report this season – adjusted beat masking a large GAAP item – warrants a long straddle rather than a short strangle ahead of the release.

Looking ahead – options

The April 21 ceasefire deadline dominates the near-term volatility landscape. Any Iran headline is likely to move both energy and equity volatility simultaneously, making defined-risk structures preferable to naked directional exposure into the event. The secondary macro focus is how markets continue to digest last Friday’s CPI and Tuesday’s PPI, especially if the two releases point to a less consistent inflation signal for rates.

Key takeaways

  • The White House signalled a second round of US–Iran talks is under consideration; the ceasefire expires April 21 with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked.
  • March PPI rose 0.5% vs a 1.1% consensus; core PPI came in at 0.1% vs 0.5% expected – the energy shock has not yet passed through into services pricing.
  • S&P 500 closed +1.18%; Nasdaq +1.96%; Dow +0.66% – equities approached their recovery highs.
  • WTI crude futures fell roughly 8% to approximately $91.28 per barrel – the sharpest single-session decline of the conflict period, driven by easing supply-risk fears on diplomacy headlines.
  • Energy sector fell more than 2%, the clear session underperformer.
  • VIX closed at 18.36 – below its long-run average – despite a live ceasefire deadline six sessions away.
  • BlackRock beat Q1 earnings (EPS $12.53 vs $11.67 consensus) and closed +3.02% at $1,054.56; financials IV now compressed – iron condors offer attractive theta collection.
  • Oracle rose approximately 5% on an expanded Bloom Energy fuel cell deal for AI data centres – not earnings-related; Bloom Energy surged 22%+ on the same announcement.
  • CarMax fell 15.6% intraday despite an adjusted EPS beat, driven by a GAAP net loss of $0.85/share from a $141.3 million impairment charge – a reminder that GAAP items can overwhelm adjusted beats in earnings season.
  • April 21 binary is the dominant options event: calendar spreads and long straddles in energy names offer the cleanest defined-risk approach to the ceasefire outcome.

Concluding remarks

Tuesday’s session handed traders two simultaneous tailwinds: a PPI print that kept the inflation-spiral narrative off the table for now, and a geopolitical signal that the most disruptive trade route closure in recent memory may be approaching resolution. Risk assets lifted broadly. What vol markets have not, in our view, fully reflected is the downside scenario – a VIX at 18.36 is consistent with a smooth recovery, not with a ceasefire that could break down in six sessions. The options setup heading into today favours defined-risk structures around the binary: let the calendar do the work, and avoid naked directional exposure before the deadline clears.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.
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Koen HoorelbekeInvestment and Options StrategistSaxo Bank
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