News

Rubio reassures lawmakers on Greenland invasion fear: acquisition diplomatic, not military

07 Jan 2026

Summary:

  • Rubio says U.S. threats against Greenland do not signal an imminent invasion. (Wall Street Journal, gated)

  • Administration still discusses buying the island from Denmark.

  • European leaders warn force would imperil NATO.

  • Greenland officials reject being sold or taken.

  • Arctic competition with Russia and China underpins strategic interest.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has sought to calm alarms among U.S. lawmakers over recent statements from the Trump administration about Greenland, clarifying that aggressive rhetoric does not mean an imminent military action to seize the Arctic island. Rubio told congressional leaders that Washington’s goal remains negotiating a purchase of Greenland from Denmark, not undertaking an invasion, according to people familiar with the briefing.

The remarks come amid increasingly combative comments from the White House, where senior officials including President Donald Trump have publicly refused to rule out force as an option in securing control of the semi-autonomous territory. White House spokespeople have framed Greenland’s strategic location in the high Arctic, at the crossroads of Russian and Chinese military interest, as a national security priority for the United States.

For now, Rubio’s comments suggest the administration hopes to temper fears in Washington that recent threats equate to a planned assault. The secretary of state’s reassurance came during a closed briefing focused primarily on broader security issues, where he emphasised that discussions with Copenhagen are ongoing and that market-moving military action is not planned.

The controversy has, however, drawn sharp rebukes from European allies. Leaders from several NATO members have publicly defended Greenland’s sovereignty and warned that any attempt to use force against a territory of a treaty ally would undermine the alliance itself, with Denmark’s prime minister saying such a move could spell the end of NATO cooperation.

Greenland’s own leadership has also rejected the notion of being sold or forcibly acquired, underscoring the island’s right to self-determination and railing against external pressure. Polls show overwhelming local opposition to U.S. control, reflecting deep concerns over sovereignty and regional stability.

The episode highlights rising geopolitical competition in the Arctic, where Russia and China are expanding their presence. While Washington’s emphasis on data, minerals and strategic positioning underscores Arctic importance, allies stress that cooperation, not coercion, must guide future engagement.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

What the steepest US yield curve since 2021 signals as 2026 begins

03 Jan 2026

Key takeaways

  • The US yield curve has started 2026 at its steepest levels since November 2021, with 2–30 reaching 139 basis points, while the more closely watched 2-10 stands near 70 basis points.
  • This steepening reflects not just expectations of front-end easing, but rising long-end risk premia linked to fiscal, inflation and supply concerns, helping explain why tangible assets have risen despite higher long-end yields. 
  • The yield curve remains a cross-asset signal, shaping outcomes for equities, credit and safe-haven commodities alike in 2026.

We begin 2026 with the steepest US yield curve since 2021. That said, it is worth noting that Friday 2 January typically marks a period when many institutional traders have yet to return in full, leaving liquidity thin and price action prone to exaggeration. Early-year moves should therefore be treated with caution, as signals generated during the first couple of weeks may reflect illiquid conditions rather than a fully formed market consensus.

Despite of these liquidity and signal value concerns, the U.S. yield curve has been steadily steepening throughout December, culminating today with the 2–30 year spread trading around 139 basis points, while the more closely watched 2–10 stands near 70 basis points. While the the inversion of 2022–24 was driven by aggressive front-end tightening and recession fears. The current steepening, reflects a different mix of forces: expectations that policy rates will ease over time, combined with a long end that remains elevated due to rising term premia, heavy issuance, and lingering inflation and fiscal uncertainty. This distinction matters because it changes how the curve interacts with risk assets and safe havens.

For equities, this creates a more selective environment. Higher long-term discount rates cap valuation multiples, particularly for long-duration growth stocks. By contrast, sectors with near-term cash flows, pricing power and tangible assets tend to fare better. In other words, the curve is supportive for risk, but less forgiving than in past easing cycles.

US 2-30 year spread begins 2026 at a four-year high

Why safe-haven investors should care just as much

Traditionally, rising long-end yields have been a headwind for safe-haven assets such as gold, silver and platinum, however that relationship has become less reliable following a breakdown in the historically strong negative correlation between gold and US long-end real yields.

The aggressive tightening cycle from 2022 would, on paper, have been deeply negative for gold as real yields surged. Instead, prices proved resilient as geopolitical fragmentation—most notably Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the freezing of Russian FX reserves—reshaped how many central banks assess reserve risk and accelerated demand from non-Western buyers less focused on yield dynamics.

Against this backdrop, the current curve steepening reflects fiscal strain, sticky inflation risks and long-term policy credibility rather than pure growth optimism. As a result, higher long-end yields need not be a headwind for non-yielding hard assets, underlining why the 2–30 curve has become a more relevant signal for safe-haven investors. 

A potential focal point for 2026

As 2026 unfolds, the US yield curve is likely to become a central reference point across asset classes, signalling both the direction of front-end policy expectations and the market’s tolerance for long-end risk. While the front end could benefit from larger-than-expected rate cuts, long yields may remain stubbornly high as interest payments—expected to approach USD 1 trillion—remain the fastest-growing part of the federal budget. That combination would imply tighter financial conditions than headline rate cuts alone suggest.

For equity investors, the curve will help determine whether rallies broaden or remain selective. For safe-haven investors, it will help clarify whether higher yields reflect growth confidence or a credibility tax. Either way, in 2026 the yield curve is set to play a defining role in shaping the macro narrative across both risk-on assets and safe havens.

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US initial jobless claims 199K vs 220K expected

01 Jan 2026
  • Prior was 214K (revised to 215K)
  • Continuing claims 1.866M vs 1.923M prior

The claims numbers over the holidays are highly volatile and subject to large seasonal revisions so they're poor numbers to index from.

The drop over a number of weeks is notable though and is tracking towards the bottom end of this range again. Next week's data will also be highly-subject to holiday seasonality but in early January, watch the numbers.

The US government shutdown made this a tough report to read through but it's tough to see where the Federal Reserve is seeing weakening in the US jobs market based on this chart. Some policymakers argue it's a 'low higher, low firing' economy and that there is some evidence for that but the 'low firing part' seems to be the most definitive, as shown in claims.

For some background, weekly initial jobless claims are released every Thursday at 8:30 am ET by the Department of Labor. They track how many Americans filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. Bill Gross said that if he only had one economic indicator, this would be it as it's the ultimate "high-frequency" pulse check on the US economy. While the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls gets the glory, jobless claims provide a real-time leading indicator.

That said, there is a high 'noise to signal' ratio in the report as holidays and other special factors can cause large weekly distortions. That's why many market watchers prefer to look at four-week moving averages in the report. However when you do that, you tend to end up with the same lags as non-farm payrolls.

So overall, this report is one piece of the puzzle and one that should be watched carefully but taken with a grain of salt, especially around holidays.

In terms of market reaction, USD/JPY is quickly up about 10 pips on the data, an indication the market thinks that this will make the Fed slightly less likely to cut rates further.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.