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Within the global trend, the US 30 index has declined, leading to a shift towards a downward trajectory. The US 30 forecast for today is negative.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the US Federal Reserve balance sheet decreased to 6.59 trillion USD
• Market impact: the data has a moderately positive impact on the stock market

US 30 fundamental analysis

Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics conference in Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell discussed in detail the current stage of quantitative tightening. Although he did not specify when the program might end, Powell noted that there are signs the Fed is nearing its target level of adequate reserves available to banks. While balance sheet management may appear to be a technical issue, it plays an important role for financial markets.

When financial conditions tighten, the Fed aims to maintain ample reserves so that banks can access liquidity and support the economy. As conditions evolve, the central bank targets a sufficient – rather than excessive – level of reserves to prevent surplus capital in the system. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve significantly expanded its balance sheet through large-scale purchases of US Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, pushing it close to 9 trillion USD.

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index continues to fall within a downtrend. The resistance level has formed at 46,880.0, while support lies at 45,450.0. At this stage, it is difficult to assess how long the current trend might last. A breakout above the current resistance level would signal a potential resumption of upward movement.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 45,450.0 support level could send the index down to 44,565.0
• Optimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout above the 46,880.0 resistance level could push the index up to 47,880.0

Summary

Jerome Powell noted signs of gradually tightening liquidity conditions, suggesting that further reserve reductions could hinder growth. The US 30 stock index has been in a downtrend since late last week. Only developments related to the US-China trade conflict are likely to reverse this trend, while economic data remains unavailable due to the government shutdown. The next downside target for the index could be 46,880.0.

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Analyst Weekly, October 13, 2025 China Tensions Rising Again What Happened:  Beijing expanded export restrictions on rare-earth materials critical to AI and semiconductor production, launched an antitrust probe into Qualcomm, and introduced new port fees ahead of US measures on large Chinese vessels (effective Oct. 14). In response, the US President threatened tariffs of up…

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The Daily Breakdown takes a closer look at the sizzlin’ semiconductors, as Nvidia and AMD are set for new record highs on Thursday. Before we dive in, let’s make sure you’re set to receive The Daily Breakdown each morning. To keep getting our daily insights, all you need to do is log in to your…

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The DE 40 stock index has approached its all-time high within an uptrend. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Germany’s CPI for September 2025 rose by 0.2% compared to August
• Market impact: the data creates a moderately positive background for the German stock market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month in September 2025, matching the forecast of 0.2% and slightly above the previous reading of 0.1%. The reading in line with expectations indicates stable inflationary pressure. For investors, this means no new signals to change expectations regarding the European Central Bank’s monetary policy. Since price growth remains moderate, the likelihood of a sharp policy tightening remains low, which is perceived as a moderately positive factor for the stock market. However, a slight acceleration compared to the previous month could prompt caution among market participants, especially if signs of broader price increases emerge.

For the DE 40 index, which reflects the performance of Germany’s largest companies, the current data appears neutral with a slight positive bias. Investors are likely to interpret stable inflation figures as confirmation that price dynamics remain under control, supporting expectations of gradual rate cuts in the future. This may help sustain investor confidence in industrial and export-oriented stocks, particularly amid moderate domestic demand and inflation stabilisation.

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index has resistance established at 24,535.0 and support around 23,400.0. Prices have managed to reverse the trend to an upward direction. A breakout above the current resistance level would automatically lead to a new all-time high. The uptrend may have a medium-term character.

The DE 40 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 23,400.0 support level could push the index down to 22,800.0
• Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 24,535.0 resistance level could propel the index to 25,480.0

Summary

CPI data in line with expectations does not create significant market pressure, supporting a positive sentiment in the German stock market. The DE 40 index may show moderate growth or consolidation as long as current macroeconomic trends remain stable. The nearest downside target for the index may be at 22,800.0.

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EUR/USD consolidates on Friday amid a quiet trading session due to the lack of a fresh catalyst, sponsored by a US government shutdown that seems poised to extend beyond the current week. The pair trades at 1.1738, up 0.28%, at the time of writing.

The US Tech index has once again reached a new all-time high. The outlook for next week remains positive.

US Tech forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US ISM manufacturing prices for September came in at 61.9
• Market impact: moderately positive for the technology sector

US Tech fundamental analysis

The US ISM manufacturing prices index stood at 61.9 in October, lower than the forecast of 62.7 and significantly below the previous level of 63.7. A lower reading indicates a slowdown in price growth in the industrial sector. For investors, this is a signal that producer-driven inflationary pressure may be easing. Such a result is typically seen as positive for the stock market, as it reduces the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will be forced into more aggressive monetary tightening than expected. In the short term, this can support the growth of US stocks.

The technology sector is especially sensitive to interest rate changes since higher borrowing costs reduce the future earnings of fast-growing companies. A decline in the ISM prices index points to reduced inflationary pressure, which may soften expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. For the US Tech index, this acts as a supportive factor, with lower inflation risks making tech stocks more attractive to investors.

US Tech technical analysis

The lower-than-expected reading represents a moderately positive signal for the US stock market as a whole and especially for the technology sector, as it lowers inflationary pressure and increases the likelihood of a softer monetary policy path. Additional clarity may come from today’s US labour market data.

The US Tech index broke above the previous resistance level at 24,805.0, with a new support line at 24,195.0. A new resistance level is yet to form. The uptrend will likely be medium-term, with the nearest upside target at 25,380.0.

The following scenarios are considered for the US Tech price forecast:

• Pessimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout below the 24,195.0 support level could push the index to 22,985.0
• Optimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout above the 24,805.0 resistance level could propel the index to 25,380.0

Summary

The US Tech index continues to reach new all-time highs. Current producer price data gives the Fed grounds to continue a more accommodative monetary policy. This supports the equity market overall and the technology sector in particular. Labour market data, due later today, could bring adjustments. The next upside target for the index could be 25,380.0.

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EUR/USD started a fresh increase above 1.1700. USD/CHF declined from 0.8000 and is now struggling to stay above 0.7945.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro started a decent upward move from 1.1650 against the US Dollar.
• There was

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the cash rate at 3.60% at today’s meeting. The decision was widely expected but the Australian dollar has declined following the decision. The cash rate remains at its lowest level since April 2023.

WTI: ⬇️ Sell – WTI reversed from resistance level 65.25 – Likely to fall to support level 61.70 WTI crude oil recently reversed down from the the resistance area between the resistance level 65.25 (upper border of the active sideways.